Elections And Macroeconomic Policy Cycles Pdf

elections and macroeconomic policy cycles pdf

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E-mail: faklein yahoo. This article tests the presence of political budget cycle PBC in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5, Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years.

Political business cycle , fluctuation of economic activity that results from an external intervention of political actors.

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Skip to search form Skip to main content You are currently offline. Some features of the site may not work correctly. DOI: Bonomo and Maria Cristina T.

Bonomo , Maria Cristina T. This paper presents a theoretical model based on the distributive effects of RER changes that generates RER electoral cycles of the type identified in Latin American countries: more appreciated RER before elections and more depreciated after elections. Typically, a RER depreciation favors exporters and import competing domestic industries, to the detriment of consumers.

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Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital

This paper examines the fiscal policy choices of Canadian provincial governments in the context of partisan and opportunistic cycles. We identify an electoral cycle in which the predilection of provincial governments of all political stripes to increase taxes is temporarily halted in election years. Opportunistic responses in spending are also present. Spending in highly visible areas schools, roads and hockey rinks tends to increase in election years. Partisan responses are largely absent from revenues but appear more frequently in program spending choices.


Abstract. There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations mac.


Political business cycle

The relationship between political and economic cycles is one of the most widely studied topics in political economics. This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of elections, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.

Abstract: There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycle in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling process. The cycle is driven by temporary information asymmetries which can arise if, for example, the government has more current information on its performance in providing for national defense. Incumbents cheat least when their private information is either extremely favorable or extremely unfavorable. An exogenous increase in the incumbent party's popularity does not necessarily imply a damped policy cycle.

Political business cycle

There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling process. The cycleis driven by temporary information asymmetries which can arise if, for example,the government has more current information on its performance in providing for national defense.

 Он лжет, - фыркнула Мидж.  - Я два года проверяю отчеты шифровалки. У них всегда все было в полном порядке. - Все когда-то бывает в первый раз, - бесстрастно ответил Бринкерхофф. Она встретила эти слова с явным неодобрением.


There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations.


Это совсем молоденькая девушка. Лет пятнадцати-шестнадцати. Волосы… - Не успев договорить, он понял, что совершил ошибку. Кассирша сощурилась.

Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Fiscal Policy: An Examination of Canadian Provinces

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Hogislire1962

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Danielle Q.

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2 But the objections to conventional political business cycle models go beyond their Phillips curve formulation, and apply to any model in which the government​.

Marina M.

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Samuel B.

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Recent literature on Political Budget Cycles has provided appealing evidence that their existence is conditional to country specific characteristics.

Donatien B.

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There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory.

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